National survey places Hawaii last in job growth
Pacific Business News (Honolulu) - by Kristine Uyeno PBN Staff Reporter
Hawaii's idle economy has once again resulted in poor job growth. A nationwide survey analyzing change in employment shows the local market at rock bottom.
American City Business Journal, parent company of Pacific Business News, released the report that listed Honolulu last out of 100 areas nationwide, with a 1.5 percent decline in total employment from 1993 to 1995. Honolulu, which was the only market to report a decline; had an annual average of 414,800 non-farm jobs in 1993, and 408,400 two years later.
"I'm not surprised," said Seiji Naya, director of the state Department of Business Economic, Development & Tourism. "For the last five years, our economy has been very sluggish, and this is the first time we have had a prolonged sluggish economy."
Leroy Laney, chief economist for First Hawaiian Bank, agreed. "It's true," Laney said. "I'm not at all surprised."
The research report, which was based on annual averages compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, listed Honolulu last after Hartford, Conn. (0.03 percent growth) and San Francisco (0.6 percent increase).
Not surprisingly, Las Vegas topped the survey, reporting a 20.4 percent jump in employment with 547,100 jobs last year compared with 454,500 in 1993. Austin-San Marcos, Texas, was ranked second with a 13.9 percent change, followed by Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz., which reported a 13.7 percent increase.
Naya attributes the drop in local job growth over the last few years to a number of factors. One is that Hawaii continues to import about $2 billion more than it exports since traditional sources of trade (sugar, pineapple) have been doing poorly. Military spending is also down because of the downsizing due to the end of the Cold War, Naya said.
Also, the local economy grew faster than the Mainland average over the past 30 years, and is now slowing down, he said. For example, in the 1960s, Hawaii grew about 6 percent a year while the rest of the nation rose by 4 percent; in the 1970s, the local economy grew 4 percent and the Mainland 3 percent; in the 1980s, Hawaii expanded about 3.6 percent while the country averaged a 3 percent growth.
But Naya remains optimistic about the future of Hawaii's employment, predicting a reversal in the decline of jobs within the next six months.
New investments, higher personal income, increasing retail sales, rising hotel receipts and visitor arrivals indicate to Naya that Hawaii is experiencing "tremendous improvement."
"Tell them, `don't worry,' " Naya said. "Las Vegas is a nice place, but it's awfully hot. I don't mind visiting once in a while, but I don't want to live there."
Within the next two years, Naya believes the local market will recover most of its losses, but it will never be as strong as it was in the past.
Laney also said Hawaii will see a positive change in the future, but not as quickly as Naya predicted.
"I think it'll be a while until we get back," Laney said. "It may not be this year, maybe next year."
He also believes the local market will not prosper as much as it did in its heyday.
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